According to a McKinsey study, by 2030, workers in 4 careers will need to change jobs due to AI and changes in shopping habits.
According to a McKinsey study, by 2030, workers in 4 careers will need to change jobs due to AI and changes in shopping habits.
The Rise of AI and Job Disruptions: What the Future Holds for American Workers
According to a recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute, nearly 12 million American workers may need to switch jobs by 2030. This alarming statistic highlights the potential impact of the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as other factors such as an aging population and the growth of e-commerce, on the employment landscape in the United States. While the Great Resignation, a trend driven by workers seeking better pay and work-life balance, characterized job-switching in recent years, the coming decade may see a different scenario unfold. Let’s delve into the details of this study and explore the jobs that could face the biggest disruptions.
The Changing Employment Landscape
The McKinsey study projects that between now and 2030, 11.8 million workers in occupations with shrinking demand will have to change jobs, not out of choice but out of necessity. Approximately nine million of these workers may have to transition into entirely new industries. The study identifies four categories that account for 75% of the projected declines in job levels: office support, customer service and sales, food services, and production work (e.g., manufacturing). However, the impact is not evenly spread across the workforce. Lower-wage workers are expected to be the most affected, with up to 14 times higher likelihood of needing to change occupations by 2030.
Driving Factors of Workforce Shifts
The McKinsey study identifies four key factors that drive the projected shifts in workforce demand. First is the automation of jobs, which could be fueled by the rise of generative AI technologies like ChatGPT. The study suggests that up to 30% of currently worked hours in the US could be automated by 2030. While automation is expected to enhance the work of STEM, creative, and business and legal professionals, it poses a challenge to occupations such as office support, customer service and sales, and food service professions. For instance, the study estimates that demand for clerks, retail salespersons, administrative assistants, and cashiers could each decline by over 600,000 jobs by 2030. Repetitive tasks, data collection, and elementary data processing, which are dominant in these roles, can be efficiently handled by automated systems. Additionally, improved chatbots could impact the demand for customer service roles.
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The second factor influencing job disruptions is the continued rise of online shopping. As e-commerce gains prominence, there may be a decrease in the need for salespersons in physical stores, but an increase in demand for transportation services personnel and warehouse workers.
The third factor at play is the aging population. Different age groups tend to have different spending patterns, leading to shifts in demand for specific jobs. Healthcare workers, from nursing aids to surgeons and radiologists, are expected to experience increased demand as the population ages.
Lastly, despite the uptick in US manufacturing, productivity gains could lead to the industry requiring fewer workers than before. While manufacturing will need fewer people, those employed will need to possess more advanced skills.
The Glass: Half Empty or Half Full?
To what extent these shifts will be positive or negative for the US workforce remains a topic for debate. Michael Chui, a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of the study, emphasizes the need to retrain vulnerable workers to ensure a smoother transition. He suggests that if the labor market enables these transitions, workers who were previously in low-paid positions could potentially move into higher-paid roles. However, enabling such transitions will require significant investment from companies, schools, and governments. Additionally, Chui proposes a more “skills-based labor market” that values a worker’s specific skillset as much, if not more, than their possession of a college degree during the hiring process.
Chui takes an optimistic view, drawing on America’s historical ability to adapt to changing times and overcome challenges. He highlights that in the past, the US transitioned from agriculture to factory work without resulting in high unemployment rates. While these new challenges do pose complexities, Chui believes that with the right approach and a positive mindset, the US can successfully navigate this transition.
Conclusion
The rise of AI and other factors such as an aging population and the growth of e-commerce may disrupt the job market, affecting nearly 12 million American workers by 2030. The study by the McKinsey Global Institute sheds light on the potential impacts on various industries and the disproportionate effect on lower-wage workers. However, with the right investments in retraining programs and a shift towards a skills-based labor market, these disruptions may present opportunities for workers to move into higher-paid positions. As the future unfolds, it is crucial for companies, educational institutions, and governments to collaborate in preparing the workforce for the changing employment landscape.
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References: – McKinsey & Company. “How technology and the COVID-19 pandemic could shift labor demand in the United States.” McKinsey Global Institute, October 2021.
