Beware of the Brintroverts.
Beware of the Brintroverts.
The Mysterious World of Polling: Brintroverts vs. Shy Voters
Last year’s general election was not a happy experience for British pollsters. Throughout the short campaign, they overwhelmingly claimed the race was very tight, only to be proven wrong when the country gave the Conservatives their first majority for 23 years. The failure of the polls sparked debates and theories about what went wrong. Several popular explanations have emerged, shedding light on the mysterious world of polling.
The Rise of the Shy Tories
The first theory explores the concept of the “Shy Tories”. This term, which first emerged after the surprise Conservative triumph in 1992, refers to voters who feel slightly embarrassed at voting for an untrendy party like the Conservative party. These voters do not admit to pollsters (or even themselves) that they trust the Conservative party more than the alternatives.
The Influence of Online Polls
The second theory suggests that there were too many online polls leading up to the general election. Online polls are cheaper and easier than phone polling, making them popular with story-hungry newspapers. However, they are more likely to elicit a “don’t know” response, as people feel under less pressure to commit to one side when interacting with a computer screen instead of an actual person. This can obscure an instinctive inclination towards loss aversion and caution.
Bias in Polling Methods
The third theory posits that pollsters had not adequately accounted for the pro-Labour bias among voters who are easiest to reach. Younger, more politically active Britons who take online polls tend to lean towards the left, while conservative voters, who tend to be busier and harder to pin down, were underrepresented in the polls.
- Cameron’s ruined legacy forces him to quit Downing Street.
- New party needed if Labour doesn’t support Remain voters
- Britain sailing into storm without driver.
What unites these three theories is the observation that certain Tory-inclined voters, for structural or conscious reasons, were political introverts for the purposes of polling. This brings us to the current EU referendum campaign, where evidence suggests that a similar phenomenon may be at play. This time, however, it seems that the introverts are the Remain voters.
Last night, for instance, NatCen, a social research body, published an experimental poll designed to avoid the flaws of conventional methods. The pollsters picked respondents at random rather than relying on volunteers, curbing self-selection bias. They also followed up with phone calls for participants who did not initially respond online. Taking into account demographic data and projected propensity to vote, the poll found that Remain had a slight lead at 53% compared to Leave’s 47%.
This poll suggests that some of the previous polls may have overstated support for Leave. Another study released by BMG Research found that, like Labour supporters in the last general election, pro-Brexit voters were easier to reach. Among those who responded to pollsters’ first call, Remain had a lead of 1.1%, while among those who required a second call, the lead ballooned to 5.6%.
Moreover, the overall trajectory of the polls in recent weeks has seen a tilt towards Remain. The Economist’s poll-of-polls now puts Remain ahead for the first time since May 23rd. In a poll by ORB, which focused on voters “certain” to turn out, Remain garnered 53% (up five points), while Leave received 46% (down three points). Notably, there has been a sudden jump in the proportion of voters who think Brexit would leave them personally worse off, according to YouGov’s polling.
All of this points to the possibility that the “undecided” and “Leave” columns of previous polls contained lurking “Brintroverts”, voters who defaulted to a fashionable “common sense” answer in favor of Brexit when put on the spot by pollsters. However, as polling day nears, these individuals may be engaging with the choice and breaking towards Remain. Perhaps ordinary folk, unlike commentators who have obsessed over every twist and turn of the campaign, may have taken a while to fully process the arguments and make up their minds.
Despite these encouraging signs for Remain, it is important to remember that a Leave vote on Thursday is still eminently possible. Remain’s lead in the poll-of-polls is only one point, and 11% of the electorate remains undecided. Additionally, pollsters are in uncharted territory, considering this is only the third nationwide plebiscite Britain has held. Differential turnout, particularly among younger voters, remains a hard-to-predict factor that could sway the outcome.
Furthermore, just as there were “Shy Tories”, it is possible that there are some “Shy Leavers” out there, well-educated or young individuals who do not want to admit their support for Nigel Farage. With so many complexities and unknowns, the outcome of the EU referendum is still uncertain. However, the Brintroverts provide hopeful grounds for optimism among the Remain campaigners.
