Britain has the potential to lead Europe if it chooses to.

Britain has the potential to lead Europe if it chooses to.

The American President’s Visit to London: A Carefully Orchestrated Bid to Nudge British Voters towards “Remain” in the EU Referendum

The American president arrived in London yesterday for a three-day visit, ostensibly to wish the Queen a happy 90th birthday. However, it is widely understood that his trip is a carefully worded bid to nudge British voters towards a “Remain” vote in the upcoming EU referendum on June 23rd. President Obama wasted no time and began his lobbying efforts this morning with an impactful column in the Daily Telegraph, chosen for being the most high-brow Eurosceptic outlet. The headline boldly stated: “As your friend, let me say that the EU makes Britain even greater.” Later today, he is expected to reiterate these arguments during a press conference in Downing Street.

Naturally, the Leave camp is furious at what they perceive as a diplomatic impropriety. Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London and prominent figure in the Leave campaign, wrote a counter-column in the Sun today, urging the president to butt out. In an odd insinuation, Johnson even brings up Obama’s Kenyan heritage, suggesting that his views reflect resentment towards Britain’s colonial past. However, this reaction can be seen as sour grapes, as for many Leave supporters, Brexit symbolizes the first step in building a new Anglophone alliance, led by Britain and America, and extending across the Commonwealth. The president’s rejection of this thrilling fantasy was met with charges of ingratitude, un-Americanism, and un-Anglo-Saxon behavior.

But above all, the Leave camp feels threatened because they know that President Obama’s comments will have a significant impact on the voters. The American president enjoys considerable popularity in Britain, and his arguments are taken seriously. His statement adds to the chorus of credible voices warning against Brexit, including the Bank of England, the IMF, business leaders, and former prime ministers. These warnings collectively form a steady drumbeat meant to sway those inclined to vote for Brexit. What makes President Obama’s comments stand out is not just their weight, but their tone of optimism. In his column, he notes, “You should be proud that the EU has helped spread British values and practices. The European Union doesn’t moderate British influence—it magnifies it.” Other interventions have primarily focused on the disadvantages of Brexit: the risk to growth and jobs, the unanswered questions from the Leave camp, and the dangers of a fragmenting Western alliance in uncertain times. While these arguments are valid, they may not resonate as strongly with the skeptical British electorate.

The Remain campaign, known as “Britain Stronger in Europe,” despite the widespread belief that Britons are not natural pro-Europeans, has employed a different approach. They acknowledge that the public may not have a latent zeal for European unity lurking just beneath the surface. Instead, they have conducted focus groups, commissioned polling, and tested their messages. Their strategy centers on highlighting the risks of Brexit, as well as the transactional benefits of EU membership. This approach appeals to a skeptical audience and forms a case that rings true.

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Nonetheless, there is a place for the type of arguments put forth by President Obama in the pro-European toolbox. Until now, the Leave side has successfully painted pro-Europeans as the gloom-mongers who believe Britain is too small and insignificant to survive without clinging to its sclerotic neighbors. The president’s argument counters this narrative. Historically, Britain has pushed the EU in a liberal, outward-looking direction. It has championed endeavors such as the Lisbon Agenda, the eastwards expansion of the EU, the Iran nuclear deal, and more recently, the moves towards TTIP. Even President Obama, who is often criticized for neglecting the transatlantic relationship, has been moved to urge Britain not to make such a self-mutilating move that would throw away these achievements, which are also in the interest of the United States.

Furthermore, despite its lack of dedication to using the EU to project its own interests, Britain manages to influence the EU significantly. This begs the question of what could be achieved if the country were to make a concerted effort over the next ten or fifteen years to remake the union in the British image. Recent geopolitical and security threats align with Britain’s long-standing desire to make the EU more outward-looking and security-conscious. The urgent need to enhance Europe’s competitiveness, an agenda now championed even by France and Italy, also responds to traditional British priorities. These developments present political opportunities for Britain within the EU.

In addition, in a Europe of overlapping and concentric circles, no EU state has an automatic claim to leadership. France may boast a powerful military but struggles economically. Germany is an industrial powerhouse but reluctant to take the lead on defense matters. Neither country has a global financial center to rival London. Britain, with one foot in Europe’s center, one in its periphery, and an eye on the wider world, may be uniquely positioned to lead within this structure.

The demographic and economic shifts in the coming years also favor Britain’s leadership role. By 2030, estimates suggest that Britain will be the largest economy in the EU and on track to overtake Germany as the union’s largest member state. This position not only grants numerical advantages in terms of parliamentary representation and influence but also carries significant symbolic weight.

While I am not convinced that these arguments should form the backbone of the Remain campaign, they do provide pro-Europeans with a strong counter to defeatist and pessimistic narratives. Eurosceptics often claim that Britain has virtually no influence in Brussels, but the reality is quite different. These arguments could be made more forcefully after a “Remain” outcome in the referendum, giving Prime Minister David Cameron the opportunity to reframe Britain’s place in Europe and outline a new course. Such a path towards skeptical and pragmatic British leadership in a continent that desperately needs it would be a legacy worth pursuing. To borrow President Obama’s catchphrase, “Yes, we can!”