China’s support for Russia is significant, but a Cold War historian warns that Putin is making a serious mistake and should not rely on this support indefinitely.
China's support for Russia is significant, but a Cold War historian warns that Putin is making a serious mistake and should not rely on this support indefinitely.
Russia’s Alliance with China: A Double-Edged Sword
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have turned their backs on the nation. But China, Russia’s powerful and influential ally, has stood by its side. While this alliance may offer short-term benefits for Russian President Vladimir Putin, history suggests that relying too heavily on China may come with long-term risks and consequences.
A Strategic Partnership
Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have proudly proclaimed their “no limits” friendship. Both leaders have a shared interest in curbing the power of the United States, and China has proven to be a crucial trade partner for Russia in the face of Western sanctions. China has even supplied Russia with enough military equipment to outfit an entire army.
The Chinese Way of Geopolitics
However, Cold War historian Sergey Radchenko argues that Putin should exercise caution when placing all his bets on China. China’s geopolitical strategy is deeply rooted in an ancient culture of leveraging alliances for its own benefit. Radchenko points to China’s actions in the early 1970s as an example.
At that time, Chinese leader Mao Zedong cozied up to the United States, despite the ongoing tensions between the countries. China’s objective was not to cultivate genuine goodwill towards the US but rather to exploit its conflict with the Soviet Union to its own advantage. By the end of the decade, however, China had turned the tables and aligned itself more closely with the USSR.
This historical example serves as a cautionary tale. China’s approach to global politics is characterized by a temporary view of partnerships, guided by its own self-serving interests. Radchenko argues that Putin’s increasing reliance on China poses a significant risk, as he burns bridges with the West without considering Beijing’s track record of instrumentalizing friendships.
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The Future of the Alliance
While there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of the China-Russia alliance, some argue that China, too, has strategic interests in maintaining the relationship. Jonathan Ward, CEO of the Atlas Group, suggests that Xi Jinping has invested heavily in the China-Russia partnership as part of his broader global strategic ambitions to confront the West. The personal and political capital poured into this alliance may make it challenging for China to easily abandon or lose their partnership with Russia.
Conclusion
Russia’s alliance with China has undoubtedly provided some immediate benefits in the face of Western sanctions. However, Putin must be cautious about relying too heavily on China. History has shown that China’s approach to geopolitics is driven by self-interests and may not yield lasting alliances. It is crucial for Putin to consider the potential consequences of burning bridges with the West and becoming overly reliant on China. A more balanced and diversified approach is necessary to ensure Russia’s long-term security and prosperity.
