Journalist predicts Prigozhin, leader of Russia’s Wagner Group, will be killed by Putin or lead another coup within 6 months.

Journalist predicts Prigozhin, leader of Russia's Wagner Group, will be killed by Putin or lead another coup within 6 months.

Leader of Russian Mercenary Group Faces Uncertain Fate

In a fascinating turn of events, a renowned investigative journalist has made a stunning prediction regarding the fate of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group. According to Christo Grozev from the esteemed investigative outlet Bellingcat, Prigozhin will either meet his demise or lead another coup against Moscow within the next six months.

This prediction comes as no surprise to Grozev, who had already suspected Prigozhin’s intentions. In fact, he had mentioned in January that Prigozhin would turn against Putin within half a year, and recent events seem to fall within that timeframe. Grozev’s suspicions were initially aroused by an unusual increase in telephone traffic between Russia’s top military officials, as revealed by data obtained by Bellingcat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s televised denunciation of Prigozhin as a traitor further added fuel to the fire. Grozev believes that Putin’s failure to execute him outright indicates his desire to see Prigozhin dead. However, with the leader of the Wagner Group remaining alive, Grozev believes there are only two possible outcomes: either Prigozhin will be dead, or he will lead a second coup within the next six months. Grozev leans towards both possibilities, as he finds it hard to imagine neither of them happening.

Prigozhin’s recent aborted mutiny, which sought to overthrow Russian military leaders he had been feuding with over the war in Ukraine, adds more intrigue to this unfolding story. The rebellion saw Wagner troops taking control of a military base in southern Russia before marching towards Moscow. However, Prigozhin abruptly called off the mutiny, and instead, struck a deal negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that granted him and many of his fighters exile in Belarus.

Unfortunately, the stability of this agreement with Belarus is under question. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, suggests that certain aspects of the deal may be collapsing. According to the ISW, Putin has been unable to effectively resolve the issues raised by Prigozhin and Wagner during the rebellion. There are rumors circulating that hundreds of Wagner troops, who had sought refuge in Belarus, are now leaving the country and preparing to “activate” at the end of August, as stated by Wagner-affiliated sources.

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The motivation behind this departure is still uncertain. Speculation from sources within the Wagner Group suggests that Lukashenko’s refusal to finance their presence might be the reason. It appears that Russia was expected to bear responsibility for the group, but that expectation has not been met. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the validity of these claims remains unclear, and it is yet to be seen how the Wagner Group will proceed, as well as how Putin might respond.

In conclusion, the unfolding drama surrounding Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group has captured the attention of both journalists and experts alike. The prediction of either Prigozhin’s demise or a second coup within six months adds an element of uncertainty and anticipation to the situation. With rumors swirling about the collapse of the Belarusian deal and the potential return of Wagner troops to Russia, the future remains uncertain for both Prigozhin and his controversial mercenary group. Only time will reveal the true outcome of this captivating story.

• Russia
• Wagner Group