Labour and UKIP delight Tories

Labour and UKIP delight Tories

British Politics: The Rise and Fall of UKIP, and Theresa May’s Victory

In the recent British by-elections, the Labour Party experienced a mixed bag of results. Labour managed to hold onto Stoke Central, albeit with a reduced vote share of 37% compared to the previous 39%. However, the real blow came in the form of losing Copeland to the Conservatives, whose vote share rose by eight points to 44%. This loss can be attributed to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s historical opposition to nuclear power, which plays a significant role in the Cumbria seat, as well as the party’s unclear stance on Brexit, which was not aligned with the seat’s majority vote to leave the European Union¹.

But it was UKIP, the United Kingdom Independence Party, that suffered the greatest setback. Paul Nuttall, leader of UKIP, put his credibility on the line by running for the Stoke Central seat, referring to it as the “capital of Brexit” to honor its strong support for leaving the EU. However, Nuttall’s campaign highlighted UKIP’s incompetence in the art of effective campaigning. His ground operation was lackluster, and he was dogged by accusations of lying on his website. This grim performance left many wondering where UKIP could win if not in a place like Stoke Central².

However, it is important to note that UKIP’s struggles are not solely their fault but are indicative of larger political forces at play: forces that have given reason for Prime Minister Theresa May to celebrate. In fact, she emerged as the big winner of the night. Copeland, which had been in Labour’s control since 1935, saw a sitting government gain a seat in a by-election for the first time since 1982. The Conservatives even came close to overtaking UKIP for second place in Stoke Central. May’s personal campaign efforts in both seats paid off handsomely. The results have further weakened Corbyn’s already frail position as Labour leader, yet not to the extent of pushing him out. For May, it’s a victory that reinforces her position and reduces the strength of her opposition³.

The outcome of these by-elections marks a significant structural shift in British politics since the EU referendum. Under David Cameron’s leadership, the Tories faced difficulties in working-class seats, particularly in the Midlands and the north, losing support to UKIP on the right-wing of the political spectrum. However, Brexit has acted as a unifying force for the right, with May deliberately catering to the desires of UKIP voters. By adopting a hardline stance on social issues, such as prioritizing the reduction of immigration in the upcoming Brexit talks, and a more interventionist approach on economic matters, particularly with regards to manufacturing, the conservatives have successfully attracted working-class conservatives back into their fold. This strategy has propelled the Conservatives above 40% in most polls and carried them to victory in the recent by-elections⁴.

While UKIP may no longer be the nightmare it once was for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats emerge as a potential concern for May. The Liberal Democrats, under the leadership of Tim Farron, have been experiencing a resurgence in recent by-elections. Although Copeland and Stoke Central are not traditional strongholds for the party, the Liberal Democrats managed to double their vote share in Copeland and more than double it in Stoke Central, particularly resonating with student voters. This surge in support serves as a reminder to Labour to remain vigilant. The Tories secured their current majority in 2015 partly with the support of disenchanted Liberal Democrat voters in London and southwest England. However, this support is not permanent, as many of these seats voted to remain in the EU and could potentially swing back to the Liberal Democrats in the upcoming general election⁵.

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In conclusion, the recent by-elections have brought forth both successes and challenges for British political parties. The Labour Party is in a state of flux, with losses and internal division, while UKIP continues to struggle to find its footing. Prime Minister Theresa May and the Conservatives emerge victorious, capitalizing on the unifying force of Brexit. However, they now face an emerging threat from the Liberal Democrats, who have made significant gains, particularly among students. The ever-changing political landscape of Britain will undoubtedly keep all parties on their toes in the upcoming general election.