Labour’s rolling crisis explained
Labour's rolling crisis explained
Labour’s Meltdown: A Dramatic Rollercoaster Ride
Something remarkable is happening in British politics. After the Labour Party’s bold move to elect Jeremy Corbyn as its leader, the party has descended into a rolling crisis. This article provides an account of what is happening, why, and what might come next.
And the Attention Moves from Air Strikes to Labour’s Meltdown
It is quite extraordinary that with a parliamentary vote on air strikes in Syria just a day away, the headlines are focused more on Labour’s internal meltdown. The vote was always going to be close, and Prime Minister David Cameron needed support from the opposition to ensure success. As the government prepared for the vote, all eyes turned to the chaos unfolding within the Labour Party.
A Painful Fortnight of Self-destruction
The period between the Paris attacks and the impending vote on air strikes has been the Labour Party’s most painful and self-destructive fortnight in decades. From Jeremy Corbyn’s controversial statements to the appointment of controversial figures, the party has been in turmoil. Here is a recap of the events that have unfolded:
- November 16th: Jeremy Corbyn expresses skepticism about shoot-to-kill tactics, leading to criticism from his own party MPs.
- November 17th: Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn supports shoot-to-kill and distances himself from Corbyn’s position. Corbyn later reverses his stance. Labour MPs attack Corbyn for his links to Stop the War, a group that blamed the Paris attacks on the West.
- November 18th: Corbyn appoints Ken Livingstone to a major defense role, leading to further criticism from Labour MPs.
- November 19th: Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell denies endorsing a statement calling for the abolition of MI5 and disarming the police, only to admit later that he did support it.
- November 20th: Labour MPs demand a free vote on air strikes.
- November 21st: Corbyn declares his opposition to air strikes, causing tension within the party. Former Labour leader Ed Miliband is reported to have said, “I bet you didn’t think things would actually get worse.”
- November 22nd: A YouGov poll reveals that two-thirds of Labour members think Corbyn is doing well, while the general public overwhelmingly disapproves of him.
- November 23rd: Corbyn is criticized by shadow ministers for his vague response to the government’s defense and security review.
- November 24th: 14 Labour MPs vote in support of renewing the Trident nuclear deterrent, defying Corbyn’s position.
- November 25th: McDonnell waves Mao’s little red book in response to the autumn statement. The tabloids and Tories mock him as Labour MPs cringe.
- November 26th: In a shadow cabinet meeting, most of Corbyn’s front bench express support for military action in Syria. Without informing Hilary Benn, Corbyn writes to MPs informing them of his opposition. Livingstone blames Tony Blair for the 2005 terrorist attacks in London.
- November 27th: Momentum, a pro-Corbyn group, bombards Labour MPs with messages urging them to oppose military action.
- November 28th: Livingstone calls British troops “discredited” and several MPs call for Corbyn to step down. Some MPs consult lawyers about means of forcing him out.
- November 29th: Corbyn states that he is not going anywhere and claims that the Labour leader, not the front bench, decides the party’s position. Shadow cabinet ministers, including Tom Watson and Hilary Benn, inform Corbyn of their intention to support air strikes. Corbyn publishes an internal poll suggesting that 75% of Labour members are opposed to air strikes and turns to the National Executive Committee for support.
- November 30th: After a shadow cabinet meeting filled with MPs yelling at Corbyn, he offers a free vote against an anti-strike party policy. Furious shadow ministers, fearing deselection, force him to retract this policy. At a PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) meeting, MPs express their outrage towards Corbyn and Livingstone.
A Honeymoon Cut Short
New opposition leaders typically enjoy a honeymoon period, but Labour is already polling lower than its disappointing result in the general election. The coming days may be even more challenging, as Corbyn opens the parliamentary debate on air strikes in opposition, while Benn concludes it in favor. Additionally, a by-election in Oldham West and Royton could see Labour’s majority significantly reduced by the UK Independence Party, particularly among working-class voters who are concerned about Corbyn’s pacifism and unorthodox views on national security. Defeat in the by-election could prompt calls for Corbyn’s resignation.
- Labour’s sensibles should push back harder.
- Labour Party showdown on Trident
- Interview with Dominic Cummings
Deep Cleavages in British and Western Politics
What is happening within the Labour Party highlights two significant divides in British and Western politics: the gulf between instrumental and expressive politics, and the division between social liberalism and statist socialism. The former refers to the difference between winning elections and enacting change versus seeking personal satisfaction and signaling one’s beliefs. The latter describes the clash between the party’s moderates and hard-liners on issues of globalization, individualism, and heavy industry decline.
Labour, with its idealistic culture and history of winning elections, struggles to reconcile these divisions. Corbyn’s lack of interest in elections and public opinion sets him apart from the pragmatism of his MPs. The challenge of leading Labour in this complex landscape has historically favored the Conservatives.
Should Labour Split?
In a logical political system, the Labour Party would likely split into two organizations: a moderate, instrumental party and a hard-left, expressive party. However, the first-past-the-post electoral system rewards large, diverse parties that can consolidate votes across various constituencies. The fear of repeating the 1983 Social Democratic Party (SDP) split, which came close to sidelining Labour, compels moderates to stay within the party.
The Future of Labour
With Jeremy Corbyn determined to lead Labour into the 2020 election, it is clear that Britain’s electorate is unlikely to support the party’s current trajectory. The most viable outcome for Labour’s future is a new leadership election forced by MPs. Installing Hilary Benn as a caretaker leader would bring some unity to the party, providing a chance to recruit middle-ground members and rally around charismatic candidates with broader appeal. The new leader would then spend the next three years rebuilding the party’s reputation and countering the influence of Corbyn’s supporters.
Four Possible Future Scenarios for Labour
Based on the current situation, here are four potential outcomes for Labour, listed from least to most pessimistic:
- Corbyn is rapidly ousted, and Benn becomes caretaker, paving the way for a more dynamic and centrist leader. Labour’s chance of winning the 2020 election: 40-50%.
- Corbyn is ousted, and one of Tom Watson, Hilary Benn, or Andy Burnham becomes the new leader. The party compromises with the largely Corbynite membership. Labour’s chance of winning the 2020 election: 25-30%.
- Corbyn retains power, further entrenching the influence of Momentum. Boundary changes result in deselection of some moderate MPs. Labour campaigns on a leftish ticket. Labour’s chance of winning the 2020 election: 5-10%.
- Corbyn remains as leader and contests the election. Labour’s chance of winning the 2020 election: 1-5%.
The most likely scenarios are numbers 2 and 3, but both suggest the Conservatives will continue to govern Britain until at least 2025. The upcoming EU referendum and Labour’s internal disarray could potentially tip the scales, but as it stands, the central projection favors the Tories to remain in power.
In conclusion, the Labour Party’s meltdown reflects deeper divides in British and Western politics. The challenge to unite instrumental and expressive politics, as well as moderate liberalism with state socialism, has proved daunting. If Labour is to remain a credible political force, it is crucial for MPs to take action and steer the party in a more centrist direction. The coming months will reveal the future of Labour and its ability to regain the trust and support of the electorate.