McKinsey predicts winners and losers in new A.I. job market.

McKinsey predicts winners and losers in new A.I. job market.

The Future of Work: Winners and Losers in the Age of A.I.

The rise of artificial intelligence (A.I.) is poised to reshape the global workforce, bringing both opportunities and challenges. The extent of its impact, however, may vary across industries. A.I. has already made its mark in certain sectors, prompting IBM’s CEO to announce job cuts that can be automated, and even sparking industry-wide strikes. Nevertheless, the advent of A.I. is also expected to create new jobs in other industries, leading to a nuanced future of work.

In a recent report, McKinsey identifies the sectors that are likely to experience growth or decline over the next decade due to A.I. technology. The researchers emphasize that “the future of work is already here, and it’s moving fast.” However, the race is not a level playing field.

According to McKinsey’s predictions, A.I. will fundamentally transform the labor market, resulting in an estimated 12 million occupational transitions by 2030. The report highlights both the sectors that will weather the storm and those that won’t.

Say Goodbye to Customer-Facing and Low-Income Roles

Customer-facing positions and low-income roles are expected to be most affected by A.I.’s rise. McKinsey foresees a decline in jobs related to e-commerce, office administration, food and customer service, as well as office support and production work. These sectors have already faced challenges with retention and hiring, with many workers in low-paying jobs leaving for better wages during the Great Resignation. In fact, over half of the 8 million-plus occupational shifts that occurred between 2019 and 2022 were in these fields.

Clerk positions will witness a decrease in demand by 1.6 million jobs, while administrative assistants, retail workers, and cashiers will see declines of 710,000, 830,000, and 630,000 jobs respectively. These roles often involve tasks that focus on efficiency and repetitive processes, making them susceptible to automation by A.I., at least for now.

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This aligns with the predictions of Joseph Fuller, a professor of management at Harvard Business School, who emphasized that routine and repetitive tasks will be most affected by A.I.’s ascent. Fuller warned that jobs involving tasks like reading and summarizing business books could be at particular risk. “I wouldn’t want to be someone who does the reading or summarization of business books to send out 20-page summaries because A.I. is really good at summarization already,” Fuller stated.

It is important to note that many customer-facing roles are also low-paying, which exacerbates the impact of A.I. on certain demographics. McKinsey’s research indicates that individuals earning $38,200 or less per year are 10 to 14 times more likely to have to change jobs by 2030 compared to those with higher incomes. This situation disproportionately affects people of color, women, and individuals with less access to higher education, as they are overrepresented in low-wage jobs. McKinsey also predicts that customer service positions, which are predominantly held by women, will decrease by 2 million, while office support roles will decline by 3.7 million.

Healthcare and High-Paying Roles: Riding the A.I. Wave

In contrast to the sectors mentioned previously, McKinsey predicts that industries that have thrived in recent years will continue to do so in the era of A.I. These sectors include business and legal roles, healthcare, management, transportation, and STEM jobs.

The healthcare industry, despite its own challenges such as long hours and low wages, is poised for sustained growth due to an aging population. McKinsey forecasts an additional 3.5 million healthcare jobs and an extra 2 million jobs for healthcare professionals. Transportation services will experience more modest but stable growth, with a projected increase of 9% by 2030. Furthermore, STEM jobs are expected to see a significant surge in demand, with a projected increase of 23% by the end of the decade.

While low-wage workers are projected to experience mobility across sectors, those in the highest wage quartile could see an increase of 3.8 million jobs, opening up new opportunities. However, this does not mean that these high-paying jobs will remain untouched by A.I. McKinsey notes that even in stable sectors, day-to-day activities may be forever changed by new technologies. “The biggest impact for knowledge workers that we can state with certainty is that generative A.I. is likely to significantly change their mix of work activities,” the report emphasizes.

In summary, the rise of A.I. will lead to a significant reshaping of the workforce. While customer-facing and low-income roles are expected to be highly impacted, high-paying sectors like healthcare and STEM will continue to thrive. The future of work will require individuals to adapt, acquire new skills, and find opportunities in sectors experiencing growth. A.I. may lead to job loss and disruption, but it also brings the potential for new and exciting roles, making it imperative for individuals and industries to stay on top of these shifts.