Miami’s population declined for the first time since the 1970s, while home prices increased by 53% in the past three years.

Miami's population declined for the first time since the 1970s, while home prices increased by 53% in the past three years.

Miami’s Comedown: Population Decline and Rising Housing Costs

Miami, once a hotspot for crypto kings and tech bros, is experiencing a comedown in recent years. Despite Florida’s overall boom, which made it the fastest-growing state between 2021 and 2022, Miami-Dade County has been losing more residents than it has been gaining. This is a significant shift, considering the county’s population nearly doubled between 1970 and 2010. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reveals that between 2019 and 2022, Miami-Dade County experienced its first multi-year population decline since 1970.

Between 2020 and 2022, close to 80,000 people left Miami-Dade County through net migration, with individuals opting to relocate within other parts of Florida or even other states. The surge in housing prices may be one of the driving factors behind this migration pattern. Miami’s median home value has risen by close to 8% over the past year, reaching a little over $550,000 according to Zillow. Since June 2020, home prices in Miami have skyrocketed by 53%. For Miami-Dade County as a whole, the median home value now stands at almost $490,000, reflecting a 7% increase over the past year.

Even renters in Miami are struggling to make ends meet. The city has the highest share in the United States of “cost-burdened renters,” with approximately 61% of renters paying 30% or more of their household income on rent. The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University reported this staggering statistic, highlighting the financial strain on Miami’s rental market.

The median household income in Miami-Dade County is around $57,815, according to the U.S. Census Bureau data collected between 2017 and 2021. Given the rising housing costs, many residents are seeking alternative locations within Florida that offer larger homes at more affordable prices. The Journal reported on a couple who sold their 1,000 square foot home in Miami to move to a larger house in Ocala, approximately four and a half hours away by car. Despite the distance, the husband continues to commute back to Miami each week for work, while the wife faces challenges finding employment in their new home.

According to a recent LinkedIn study referenced by the Journal, the most popular destinations for those leaving the Miami area are Orlando, the Tampa Bay area, Atlanta, and Jacksonville. These cities offer average home prices at least $100,000 cheaper than Miami. The allure of a more affordable housing market, combined with the potential for a better quality of life, has enticed many Miami residents to seek greener pastures elsewhere within Florida.

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Miami’s population decline and the challenges associated with rising housing costs are significant factors impacting the city’s current landscape. While the area may have been a hotspot for certain demographics in the past, its dynamics are shifting. However, the allure of Miami and its unique blend of culture, entertainment, and business opportunities will continue to attract new residents. As the city navigates these changes in population and housing, it will be interesting to see how Miami evolves to meet the needs and aspirations of its current and future inhabitants.

• Housing
• Income
• Miami