Moderna anticipates $8 billion in COVID vaccine sales in 2023 through private market prospects.
Moderna anticipates $8 billion in COVID vaccine sales in 2023 through private market prospects.
Moderna Raises Annual Forecast for COVID-19 Vaccine Sales to $8 Billion
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Moderna Inc (MRNA.O), the leading COVID-19 vaccine maker, has raised its annual forecast for vaccine sales to up to $8 billion. This news has sent the company’s shares soaring by 6% in premarket trading. The revised forecast is driven by hopes of a boost in sales as the market shifts from government contracts to private markets in the United States.
During the peak of the pandemic, Moderna and Pfizer experienced surges in demand for their COVID-19 vaccines. However, as vaccination rates have increased and the initial rush has subsided, sales have declined. Both companies are now looking to the private market and the introduction of updated shots to reinvigorate sales.
Moderna now expects its COVID-19 shots to generate between $6 billion and $8 billion in sales this year, surpassing its previous forecast of $5 billion. The company anticipates potential U.S. demand for 50 to 100 million doses in the fall season, driving this upward revision. Additionally, Moderna anticipates sales of $2 billion to $4 billion from commercial contracts in the United States and other countries. However, the company has announced that $1 billion of the total $5 billion in sales from signed government contracts will be deferred to the following year.
Recently, Pfizer cautioned that the future sales of COVID-19 vaccines are uncertain, indicating that the vaccination rates during the fall season will be a good predictor for annual rates. Pfizer’s sales of its COVID-19 vaccine fell by 83% in the second quarter.
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In contrast, Moderna reported a 94% decline in second-quarter COVID-19 vaccine sales to $293 million. While this figure still exceeded analysts’ expectations of $233.6 million, it reflects the overall slowdown in the market. The company reported a narrower net loss of $3.62 per share, better than analysts’ average estimate of a $4.04 loss. However, Moderna’s financials were impacted by inventory writedowns and other charges worth $674 million. These charges were driven by a shift in product demand towards the updated COVID-19 shot, as well as a decline in customer demand for the previous version.
The revised annual forecast from Moderna reflects the optimism in the company’s ability to recapture market share in the private market as well as leverage the potential demand for its updated shots targeting the XBB.1.5 variant. With the fall season approaching, the company is poised to tap into renewed demand, potentially surpassing its already bullish forecast. It remains to be seen how the future unfolds, but Moderna is positioning itself to capitalize on the evolving COVID-19 landscape.
