Put David Cameron’s renegotiation in perspective.
Put David Cameron's renegotiation in perspective.
The High-Stakes Game of David Cameron’s EU Renegotiation
As David Cameron arrives in Brussels for the final round of negotiations on Britain’s membership in the EU, the intensity of the moment cannot be understated. For over three years, the deadline for this renegotiation has weighed heavily on the prime minister, consuming his attention and energy. In the final weeks, Mr. Cameron has been shuttling around Europe, pressing the flesh and testing the limits of what can be diplomatically achieved. The outcome of these negotiations will have a profound impact on both his political future and the future of the European Union itself.
The media hordes have descended upon Brussels, eager to report on what some are calling a “make or break summit.” The attention given to this event is not unwarranted, considering the stakes involved. The credibility of both Mr. Cameron and EU leaders like Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel hang in the balance. They have staked their reputations on delivering a deal that Mr. Cameron can sell to his party and the British voters in the upcoming referendum.
However, not all EU member states are fully supportive of Britain’s desire to cherry-pick its benefits while avoiding other EU obligations. France, Poland, and Belgium, among others, have expressed concern that giving too many concessions to Britain could embolden other Eurosceptic parties within their own countries. The fear is that these parties may demand similar renegotiations, leading to a potential unraveling of the EU.
The suspense surrounding the outcome of these negotiations is further heightened by the lack of clarity and details about the proposed package. Will there be a commitment to treaty change that includes curbs on migrant benefits? How long will these curbs apply? What regulatory leeway will be granted to the City of London? And perhaps most crucially for Mr. Cameron and George Osborne, will the “emergency brake” mechanism for non-eurozone members have real teeth and be under Britain’s control?
While the continental ramifications of Mr. Cameron’s renegotiation are significant, the impact on the domestic debate about Britain’s EU membership is less clear. Regardless of the outcome, staunch Eurosceptics are unlikely to be persuaded to support continued membership. Similarly, those who believe in the benefits of EU membership are unlikely to be swayed by a subpar deal. The notion that key figures within the Conservative Party, such as Michael Gove, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson, will base their decision on the precise details of the final renegotiation is, to borrow a phrase from Mr. Johnson himself, an “inverted pyramid of piffle.”
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What Mr. Cameron achieves in Brussels will undoubtedly have implications for his party but is unlikely to be the deciding factor in the referendum. Issues such as the ongoing migrant crisis and the state of the British economy will loom far larger in the minds of voters when they head to the polls. While Brexit is undoubtedly a monumental geopolitical question, it should not be conflated with the much less significant and only partially related issue of Britain’s renegotiation.
In the coming days, as the details of the renegotiation become public, it will be interesting to see how they play out both domestically and internationally. The focus will now shift to the referendum campaign, where passionate arguments for and against EU membership will be made. The fate of Britain’s future in Europe hangs in the balance, and the coming months will decide whether the nation will choose to stay or leave the European Union.
