Putin hopes for a Republican victory in the 2024 election to reduce US aid to Ukraine, according to officials.

Putin hopes for a Republican victory in the 2024 election to reduce US aid to Ukraine, according to officials.

Russia’s Prolonged Efforts in Ukraine: A Waiting Game for Trump in 2024?

Putin and Trump

As tensions continue to simmer in Ukraine, US officials are growing increasingly concerned about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s prolonged efforts in the region. According to CNN, there is speculation that Putin is waiting for a Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election, which could lead to a reduction in US support for Ukraine. While there is no concrete evidence to support this theory, it is a topic of discussion among national security officials and diplomats.

One unnamed official told CNN, “Putin knows Trump will help him. And so do the Ukrainians and our European partners. So even though we haven’t seen anything explicitly to that effect, you have to assume, I believe, that everyone is thinking it.” This sentiment is echoed by another US official who stated, “We have no doubt that Putin is trying to hold out until the next election,” and a European official who believes that “allowing the war to wage on until the election is exactly Putin’s plan.”

The possibility of Putin strategizing for a Trump victory means that he could be planning to continue the conflict in Ukraine for at least 15 more months. However, this strategy may prove challenging for Russia due to manpower issues, dysfunction within its ranks, and Putin’s own waning power following the Wagner Group uprising. Despite these challenges, officials believe Putin sees another Trump presidency as a saving grace for Russia, given Trump’s past defenses of the Russian leader.

Polls suggest that Trump is currently the frontrunner for the Republican Party, despite facing legal troubles. While he has not explicitly stated his stance on Ukraine in the event of his victory, Trump recently called on Republican lawmakers to withhold military aid until President Joe Biden agrees to congressional probes into his son Hunter Biden. Daniel Fried, a former US ambassador to Poland, warns that a Trump victory could compromise political support for Ukraine.

Amidst these concerns, ongoing US assistance to Ukraine becomes all the more important. However, a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS indicated that support for Ukraine among the American electorate is dwindling. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed believe that Congress should not approve more funding for Ukraine. Despite this declining support, the Biden administration has reiterated its commitment to supporting Ukraine, with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stating that Putin will be disappointed if he relies on the 2024 election for a change in US policy towards Ukraine.

In conclusion, the prospect of Putin waiting for a Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election as a means to reduce US support for Ukraine is a growing concern among officials. While there is no definitive evidence to support this theory, it is widely discussed within diplomatic and national security circles. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine raises questions about the feasibility of Putin’s strategy given Russia’s internal challenges. However, the potential for Trump to win the election and change US policy towards Ukraine remains a possibility that cannot be ignored. As such, the importance of continued US assistance to Ukraine is underscored, even as support among the American electorate appears to be declining.