Russia chose to engage in a naval battle in the Black Sea against Ukraine, despite Ukraine not having its own fleet. However, Russia is currently losing the fight.

Russia chose to engage in a naval battle in the Black Sea against Ukraine, despite Ukraine not having its own fleet. However, Russia is currently losing the fight.

Ukraine’s Surprising Response to Russia’s Threats in the Black Sea

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet warships

Russia’s announcement to militarize the Black Sea in July sent shockwaves through the international community. Moscow issued a sweeping threat to civilian ships transiting the waters, warning them against becoming “party to the war.” However, Ukraine, despite having a limited navy, has quickly turned the tide by launching a series of attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, using sea drones and cruise missiles. This unexpected response has damaged Russian vessels, injured military personnel, and disrupted naval logistics and operations.

Ukraine’s initiative in countering Russia’s aggression has caught the attention of global defense officials. Adm. Tony Radakin, Britain’s chief of the defense staff, praised Ukraine for retaining the initiative in the conflict, asserting that Russian President Vladimir Putin has lost control of the war he started.

Russia’s decision to withdraw from the United Nations-brokered Black Sea grain deal in July signaled its intent to consider any ships in the region as potential carriers of military cargo aiding Ukraine. Immediately following this announcement, Russia increased its attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets along the Black Sea, targeting ports and food storage facilities. The White House criticized these attacks, stating that they were part of a coordinated effort to justify further actions against civilian ships and blame Ukraine for the escalation.

After several weeks, Russia followed through on its threats. In mid-August, Russian forces raided a Palau-flagged cargo ship, interrogating the crew to search for “prohibited goods.” While the ship was allowed to continue on its journey, tensions escalated further when a missile carrier from the Black Sea Fleet fired two Kalibr cruise missiles at a Liberian-flagged cargo ship in a Ukrainian port. Although Ukraine’s air-defense systems successfully intercepted the missiles, this marked the most serious attack on a civilian vessel since Russia withdrew from the grain deal.

Despite having a limited navy, Ukraine has responded by focusing on developing an innovative approach. The country has turned to uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), or sea drones, to wreak havoc on the Black Sea Fleet. These cheap, explosive, and remotely operated drones have provided Ukraine with what experts describe as an “asymmetric advantage” against Russia, as they have yet to consistently counter these systems.

Furthermore, Ukraine has utilized its arsenal of long-range Western-made cruise missiles to target the Black Sea Fleet. One striking example includes the UK-provided Storm Shadow missile, which has been used to pound targets belonging to the fleet in Sevastopol, located on the occupied Crimean peninsula.

A Ukrainian surface drone called “Sea Baby”

These retaliatory actions have inflicted damage on critical Russian maritime assets. In September, a shipyard in Sevastopol was severely damaged, rendering a landing vessel and submarine inoperable. Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces claimed that nearly three dozen people were killed, and over 100 others were injured in an attack on the nearby headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet during a naval leadership meeting. Western intelligence assessed that the damage will pose significant maintenance challenges for the fleet, considering the lack of suitable alternative repair yards.

Retired US Navy Admiral John Harvey Jr., who previously oversaw US Fleet Forces Command, criticized Russia for its lack of caution in protecting high-value targets like ships, aircraft, and personnel. He expressed surprise at Russia holding an important meeting at an obvious location, as it exposed them to attacks. Harvey believes that these attacks represent a significant setback for Russia’s control of near-term operations in the Black Sea.

Throughout the conflict, the Black Sea Fleet has disrupted Ukrainian exports and launched missile attacks on military and civilian targets on land. In response, Ukraine has established a new shipping corridor in the Black Sea to avoid Russian blockades and ensure the flow of critical cargo for its economy.

Looking ahead, the situation could worsen for Russia. The Biden administration is reportedly planning to supply Ukraine with missiles that will extend the range and lethality of its arsenal, including the sought-after MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). This could further challenge Russia’s fleet and force them to reevaluate their strategies to mitigate the growing compromise of their overall force layout in Crimea.

Russia’s failure to gauge Ukraine’s capacity to launch impactful strikes on the Black Sea Fleet reflects a lack of imagination on Moscow’s part. As Ukraine continues to adapt to the maritime theater, more successful attacks are expected, leading to a growing campaign that will test Russia’s control and size.

Ukraine’s dynamic response to Russia’s threats in the Black Sea has defied expectations. Through the strategic use of sea drones, cruise missiles, and creative tactics, Ukraine has emerged as a formidable force. As the conflict continues, the balance of power appears to be shifting, with Ukraine gaining the upper hand in this unconventional battle on the high seas.