Sturgeon’s referendum consultation helps her out of a tight spot.

Sturgeon's referendum consultation helps her out of a tight spot.

Scotland’s Independence Question: A Political and Economic Dilemma

Image source: The Economist

Delegates and journalists arriving at the Scottish National Party (SNP) conference in Glasgow are buzzing with anticipation over the political puzzle that Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s First Minister, has been facing since the Brexit referendum. With every single area of Scotland voting to remain in the EU, the country is now being pulled out of the European club by England. This creates a golden opportunity for pro-independence campaigners within the SNP to push for another referendum on Scottish independence. However, the implications of Brexit have cast doubt on the economic viability of such a move.

The argument for independence is fueled by concerns about an isolationist, right-wing England heading towards a hard Brexit, which could potentially impoverish the whole of Britain. Understandably, many sympathize with this perspective. However, the economic reality is that an independent Scotland, still within the EU, would face a hard border not only with England but also with the rest of the UK. Given that Scotland does much more trade with the rest of the UK than with the EU, this poses a significant challenge and may explain why fewer Scots now support independence compared to before the Brexit referendum.

Navigating this delicate balance, Nicola Sturgeon, a pro-independence leader, must respond to the demands for another referendum while being mindful of the economic implications and public sentiment. Her cautious approach, in contrast to her predecessor Alex Salmond’s more radical stance, is reflected in recent tensions within the SNP between gradualists and secessionist radicals.

During her speech at the conference, Sturgeon cleverly established a holding position that appeased both factions. She announced the publication of the Independence Referendum Bill for consultation, signaling a sense of momentum and unity within the party. Importantly, this move consolidates the SNP’s popularity in Scotland ahead of forthcoming local elections. By wielding the prospect of a new independence referendum, Sturgeon strengthens her bargaining power in negotiations with London and Brussels. European Parliament’s point man for Brexit, Guy Verhofstadt, among others, sympathizes with Scotland’s desire to remain in the EU.

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Moreover, the leverage obtained through the pursuit of independence can also be applied to Scotland’s position within the United Kingdom. Ramping up the case for independence simultaneously amplifies the argument for more devolution of powers to Holyrood. Former SNP minister Alex Neil has advocated for seizing powers returning from Brussels, such as employment rights and agricultural policy, to achieve what he calls “neo independence.” Brexit’s exemption of Britain from certain tax harmonization rules may also grant Scotland greater fiscal autonomy.

Reading between the lines of Sturgeon’s speech, it becomes apparent that her central goal may lie in pushing a post-Brexit Britain towards establishing a more internal federal structure. By sternly warning against underestimating her commitment to protecting Scotland’s interests, she might be bluffing to appease the strong sentiments within the SNP. We will soon see how successful this approach proves to be during the rest of the conference, where initial reactions have been exceedingly enthusiastic.

Interestingly, the SNP’s conference sheds light on a broader trend seen in UK-wide parties like Labour and the Conservative Party, wherein activism and party member indulgence play a significant role. Both the Labour and Conservative conferences showcased party-specific sensibilities, with Jeremy Corbyn rallying left-wing tunes in Liverpool and Theresa May committing to a hard Brexit and a crackdown on immigration in Birmingham. This activist-driven politics is now on display in Glasgow. Whether this trend towards accommodating party members without confrontation bodes well for the future remains to be seen in the age of the coddled party member, both north and south of Hadrian’s Wall.