Ukraine’s counter-offensive has not made significant progress yet.

Ukraine's counter-offensive has not made significant progress yet.

Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive Against Russia: A Gritty Battle of Attrition

It has been two months since Ukraine launched its counter-offensive against the Russian forces occupying its territory. Over the past week, the campaign has entered a distinct second phase, marked by strategic probing operations and small-scale drone strikes. Despite the recent commitment of Ukraine’s new 10th Corps, progress remains slow and challenging.

Ukrainian forces have been conducting attacks in multiple directions, aiming to disrupt Russian supply lines and weaken their defensive capabilities. Additionally, Ukraine has launched drone strikes on Moscow to remind Muscovites of the conflict’s proximity and the Kremlin’s struggle to defend against cross-border threats.

According to Russian sources, Ukrainian forces have retaken approximately 200 square kilometers of territory since the start of the counter-offensive. However, these gains indicate that the tempo of the operation has not changed significantly. The arrival of the 10th Corps seems to have primarily provided relief to the 9th Corps, which bore the brunt of the fighting since June.

Ukraine’s operational strategy, described as “starve, stretch, and strike,” is based on attacking logistics hubs, probing multiple axes, and eventually launching a decisive strike. The timing and direction of the main thrust remain uncertain, as Ukrainian forces maintain tight operational security. However, any decision will be opportunistic and carry significant risk.

Driving south from Zaporizhzia to Melitopol and the Sea of Azov would yield the greatest strategic reward for Ukraine. This route would split Russian forces, sever their land bridge to Crimea, and bring much of the peninsula within range of Ukrainian artillery and missiles. Yet, breaching the heavily fortified Russian lines in this area remains a formidable challenge.

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The Ukrainians have observed that large armored formations become vulnerable to air attacks when hindered by minefields and other obstacles. Therefore, their current progress is mainly attributed to actions carried out by smaller units, utilizing cover provided by tree-lines and settlements.

An alternative strategy might involve capitalizing on weaker Russian defenses around the devastated town of Bakhmut and then advancing south into Donbas. Although this approach would be politically detrimental to Russia, it would offer Ukraine less strategic advantage than reaching the coast.

The success of Ukraine’s eventual strike will depend on the Russians’ ability to withdraw from exposed positions and regroup on more defensible lines. The Russian troops, exhausted and facing morale issues, will face a critical test. Furthermore, the Ukrainian attrition tactics will be evaluated, reflecting their effectiveness since mid-June.

It is crucial to recognize that the Ukrainians do not possess the overwhelming firepower and air supremacy available to Western armed forces. Their struggle against Russia, which has heavily relied on drones for defense, mirrors the challenges faced by armies in the first world war when confronted with machine guns.

The Ukrainians must achieve some level of success before the autumn mud further limits their offensive options. Success is not only vital for the morale of soldiers and civilians but also for maintaining the confidence of allies and putting pressure on the Kremlin.

However, Ukrainian success should not be measured solely based on Western best practices. Analysts argue that Ukraine should be supported in fighting the way it fights best, accepting the logic of attrition. This approach acknowledges the unique challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, ensuring a more realistic assessment of their achievements.

In this gritty battle of attrition, Ukraine will continue to wage a determined fight against Russian aggression. Although progress may be slow and challenging, the resolve of the Ukrainian people and their pursuit of victory will be instrumental in shaping the outcome of this conflict.