Ukraine’s offensive threatens Russian forces, but Chinese artillery may assist Moscow.

Ukraine's offensive threatens Russian forces, but Chinese artillery may assist Moscow.

The Role of Artillery in Russia’s War in Ukraine and China’s Potential Involvement

Author: Michael Peck

Russia’s military strategy has always relied on overwhelming the enemy through quantity rather than quality. However, with hopes for a quick victory in Ukraine fading, the Kremlin is shifting its focus to a war of attrition against Kyiv. To win this war, Russia must be capable of replacing equipment and ammunition more effectively than Ukraine. Surprisingly, it is Ukraine that has secured military aid from 50 countries, while Russia has only managed to purchase arms from a few pariah states like Iran and North Korea.

In a recent report by the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, artillery and long-range fires were identified as the “critical capability underpinning the Russian military.” This reliance on artillery can be seen as a compensation for other tactical shortcomings. However, Moscow has been utilizing its “massive stockpile of ammunition” inefficiently, burning through shells and cannons faster than it can replenish them.

The flaws in Russia’s approach are evident on the ground in Ukraine. The commander of Russia’s 58th Army in Ukraine was recently relieved of duty after highlighting the poor state of Russian artillery, including the lack of counter-battery fire and artillery reconnaissance stations. If Russia is unable to bring as much firepower to bear, it could struggle to hold ground.

One crucial factor that could make a significant difference to Russia’s war machine is China. While China has pledged neutrality in the conflict, its military stockpiles and industrial base could provide vital support to Russia’s efforts. This potential involvement from China could have consequences as significant as Mao Zedong’s decision to send 3 million Chinese “volunteers” to fight in the Korean War.

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Artillery remains a historical link between Russia and China. China’s army, known as the People’s Liberation Army, used Soviet-supplied or Soviet-designed howitzers and multiple-launch rocket systems throughout the Cold War. Although China now designs its own artillery, many of its weapons still share calibers with the Russian army. This compatibility means that China’s munitions factories could produce shells that would work with Russian ordnance.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there have been concerns about China potentially supplying military hardware to Russia. While China has vowed not to sell arms to either side, trade data shows Chinese firms shipping items, including “hunting rifles,” that could have military applications, as well as significant quantities of gunpowder to Russia. Ukrainian officials have also reported finding more Chinese-made components in Russian weapons, and US officials have stated that China’s government is considering sending artillery shells to Russia.

At first glance, it seems natural for China to support Russia against Ukraine. Moscow and Beijing are close partners, with their relations warming considerably under the leadership of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Both countries share a desire to challenge the current global political and economic system dominated by Western liberal democracies. China selling arms to Russia, a reversal of the historical trend, would not only bring cash into China’s Covid-damaged economy but also help fund its massive military buildup aimed at Taiwan and the US.

However, there are compelling reasons for China to refrain from actively taking Russia’s side. Massive military support for Russia would antagonize not only the US but also Europe, which has had relatively cordial relations with China but is now adopting a tougher stance over Chinese imports and other issues. Moreover, Beijing may view Russia as a convenient distraction for the US and Europe, diverting their resources from the Pacific region. Chinese nationalists, still harboring resentment over historical disputes with Russia, may also support this stance.

Ultimately, Chinese support could significantly impact the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine. If China were to provide tooling and workers to establish additional production capacity in Russia for munitions and barrels, it could change the trajectory of Russian forces. However, salvation from Beijing may be a long time coming, as China’s commitment to neutrality remains uncertain.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in prestigious publications such as Forbes, Defense News, and Foreign Policy magazine. He holds a master’s degree in political science. For more of his insights, you can follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

• China
• Russia
• Ukraine