Ukrainian army adds new forces for major southward advance
Ukrainian army adds new forces for major southward advance
Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive: The Stakes are High
As the war in Ukraine drags on, the country’s counter-offensive has entered a critical phase. On July 26th, Ukraine deployed a significant part of its reserve forces in the south, committing them to heavy fighting around the village of Robotyne. The focus of their attacks is towards Melitopol and Berdyansk, strategic locations that could disrupt Russian control over the “land bridge” to Crimea. However, Ukraine must first overcome the challenges that have hampered its progress thus far.
The initial phase of the counter-offensive began on June 4th, with Ukrainian forces launching attacks in various provinces. Equipped with Western weaponry, their progress was initially slow, encountering minefields and coming under heavy fire from Russian artillery, anti-tank missiles, attack helicopters, and loitering munitions. In response, Ukraine adjusted its strategy, deploying smaller, dismounted infantry units to proceed cautiously.
The slow progress can be attributed to the formidable defenses put up by Russian forces. Deeply entrenched with tank traps and minefields, breaching their lines without complete air superiority is a daunting task. Furthermore, Russia has demonstrated a stronger defense than expected, launching rapid and mobile counter-attacks instead of remaining confined to trenches. Their innovative tactics, such as stacking anti-tank mines, have undermined Ukraine’s advances.
Another factor hindering Ukraine’s progress is its lack of equipment, including demining kits, air-defense systems, and longer-range anti-tank missiles to counter Russian counter-attacks. Moreover, operational shortcomings, such as inadequate coordination and proficiency in complex attacks involving multiple units and different types of weaponry, have hampered Ukraine’s efforts. The rushed formation of new brigades, paired with the unfamiliarity of the equipment, has resulted in challenges in tasks like reconnaissance and night-time operations.
Despite these setbacks, Ukraine’s allies remain optimistic, viewing the counter-offensive as a work in progress rather than a failure. They cite several factors that work in Ukraine’s favor. First, there is little prospect of a major Russian counter-attack, as Russia’s forces lack mobile reserves due to their decision to defend forward rather than fall back to prepared defenses. Second, Ukraine has been gradually chipping away at Russia’s combat power, successfully targeting command posts and striking air bases and ammunition depots.
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To address the challenges and adapt its plan, Ukraine’s top general decided to deploy fresh forces on July 26th. The initial idea was for the 9th Corps to fight its way to Russia’s main line of defense, followed by the deployment of the 10th Corps to break through the strongest defenses. However, the 9th Corps faced delays and deployed smaller units instead of whole brigades, raising concerns about their exhaustion before reaching the main Russian line.
Western officials remain confident, emphasizing Ukraine’s strong operational position and the turmoil within Russia’s senior ranks. The commitment of the 10th Corps marks a pivotal moment for General Zaluzhny, who shoulders the weight of Ukrainian and allied expectations. The cautious commander is faced with the last significant decision of the summer.
Ukraine is hesitant to gamble its army in circumstances that NATO generals have never encountered. With an aversion to casualties, Ukrainian units have maintained better strength than expected. The commitment of the 10th Corps signifies a break from their hesitation and a bold move to advance their momentum. The die is cast, and the stakes are high for Ukraine.
